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Modeled CAG/TC next week with now 40% NHC odds within 7 days. Model-implied 80% odds within 10 days. Entire NW Carib & Gulf should monitor.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 8 (Francine) , Major: 387 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 46 (Debby) Major: 387 (Idalia)
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Mid September Systems

Posted: 11:38 AM 12 September 2024 | | Add Comment

2:40PM EDT 15 September 2024 Update
PTC EIGHT is no longer forecast by NHC to become a tropical cyclone. Tropical Storm-like conditions are still underway, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for South Santee River, South Carolina northward to Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina

Elsewhere, Gordon continues barely qualifying as a Tropical Depression way out in the central Tropical Atlantic.

11PM CDT 15 September 2024 Update
Gordon barely hanging on as a weak Tropical Depression way out in the central Tropical Atlantic.

Closer to home, a hybrid that is expected to become a brief tropical storm is tracking towards the southeast CONUS, now Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight. The next name on the list this year is Helene.

Original Update
We are now technically just past peak, but also with still more than 50% of the hurricane activity to come, based on climatology. This is especially so for Florida, where hurricanes, including majors, often strike up through the end of October.

Now that formerly Cat 2 Francine is a 35 MPH inland TD undergoing extra-tropical transition, we are turning back attention to a few other features that have been worth watching.

First worth noting is Invest 94L now located just east of the Leewards. This vigorous area of low pressure continues firing deep convection today, despite being surrounded by some dryer air and during daylight, which tends to provide a less stable atmosphere to work with. Interests in the Leewards to Greater Antilles may want to watch this feature, as it is small and has been flying a bit under the radar so to speak.

Off the southeast coast, a non-tropical area of low pressure is trying to form that by later this weekend or early next week could acquire subtropical or even tropical characteristics.

Elsewhere, TD 7 way out in the eastern Atlantic is worth monitoring as it could become a long-track CV type system that if not sent fishing, could be of concern later next week.





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